The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform has put out its anticipated report, entitled “The Moment of Truth.” In this post, I summarize the Commission’s recommendations on health care policy, with minimal editorializing. I’ll put out a subsequent post with my assessment of the actual quality of these recommendations.
Overall, the Commission aims to achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction through 2020, by capping revenue at 21% of GDP (higher than historical averages) and reducing the deficit to 2.3% of GDP by 2015 (it’s currently 8%). Because Medicare and Medicaid are such are such huge components of federal spending, achieving these fiscal goals requires substantial changes to our government’s involvement in health care. These include:
Modifying the employer tax exclusion. Currently, employer-provided health insurance is excluded from taxable income, something that grossly distorts our health care system by taking purchasing decisions out of individuals’ hands and placing them in the hands of HR bureaucrats. I have advocated eliminating this exclusion entirely as a way to increase revenue and lower health costs. The Commission advocates capping the deductible amount at the 75th percentile of premium levels in 2014, and freezing the cap (i.e., not indexing it to inflation) from 2018 to 2038. The Commission also advocates reducing Obamacare’s “Cadillac tax” to 12% from 40% on high-cost plans.
Reforming the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) “doc fix”. The “doc fix” requires the government to reduce payments to doctors and physicians if health costs exceed the Sustainable Growth Rate, a blend of health inflation, GDP, and other measurements. Congress keeps overruling the SGR and paying doctors and hospitals at higher rates; bringing payment rates in line with SGR in 2012 would require a 23% cut to physician and hospital payments. The Commission recommends freezing rates at current levels (i.e., continuing to spend well above SGR levels), enacting a 1% cut in 2014, and directing Medicare to come up with a new payment system that would “cost about $22 billion less” than freezing payments at current levels. That is to say, the Commission advocates punting the SGR situation and saving costs elsewhere to make up for the excess spending.
Reform or repeal the CLASS Act. The CLASS Act, a voluntary entitlement for long-term care, was famously described last year by Kent Conrad as “a Ponzi scheme of the first order, the kind of thing that Bernie Madoff would have been proud of,” but Conrad voted for it anyway. The Commission advocates reforming the CLASS Act “in a way that makes it credibly sustainable over the long term”—good luck with that—or repealing it. Because the CLASS Act will rake in more money in the near term but lose money in the long term, it is considered a deficit-reducing measure within the CBO’s ten-year scoring window. Hence, repealing it will require matching tax increases or spending cuts.
Paying for SGR reform and CLASS Act repeal. The Commission recommends offsetting the above SGR and CLASS Act reforms above with a long litany of reform measures that are projected to save $391 billion from 2012 through 2020:
- Waste, fraud, and abuse ($9 billion in savings from 2012 through 2020). “Increasinging the ability of CMS to combat waste, fraud, and abuse” (don’t laugh) “by providing the agency with additional statutory authority and increased resources.”
- Increased cost-sharing ($110 billion). Reforming Medicare cost-sharing rules, by increasing the amount seniors pay for increased health spending. This is key to any serious attempt to reform Medicare. The Commission recommends a single combined annual deductible of $550 for Medicare Parts A and B (hospital and medical care), with 20% coinsurance up to $5,500, 5% coinsurance from $5,500 to $7,500, and 0% cost sharing above $7,500.
- Restrict Medigap plans ($38 billion). This is another key element of serious Medicare reform: restricting the ability of private insurers to write plans that piggyback off of Medicare coverage, incentivizing seniors to overspend on health care. The Commission recommends prohibiting Medigap plans from covering the first $500 of an enrollee’s cost-sharing liabilities and no more than 50% of the next $5,000 in liabilities.
- Extend Medicaid drug rebate to dual eligibles ($49 billion). Currently, seniors who are eligible both for Medicare and Medicaid pay the private-sector (i.e., market-rate) prices for drugs through the Medicare prescription drug benefit. The Commission advocates requiring pharmaceutical companies to give these individuals the much-lower Medicaid rates.
- Reduce “excess” payments to hospitals for medical education ($60 billion). At present, Medicare provides supplemental funding to hospitals in order to subsidize the cost of training medical interns and residents (recent medical school graduates). The Commission advocates reducing these payments using a new formula.
- Cut Medicare payments for bad debts ($23 billion). Medicare reimburses hospitals and doctors for deductibles and copays owed those providers by patients, giving hospitals and doctors no incentive to track down those missed payments. The Commission recommends ending this practice.
- Accelerate Obamacare home health savings ($9 billion). The Commission recommends moving up the timetable for changes to reimbursements for home health providers, as mandated by PPACA, by several years.
- Eliminate state gaming of Medicaid tax gimmick ($44 billion). According to the Commission, many states game the system by taxing hospitals and doctors, and then using those revenues to pay for more health care delivered by those hospitals and doctors. Because the federal government gives states more Medicaid funding if the states “spend” more, this system allows states to effectively force Washington to fund profligate Medicaid spending. The Commission recommends “restricting and eventually eliminating this practice,” but declines to give specifics.
- Place dual eligibles in Medicaid managed care ($12 billion). Because the government reimburses doctors and hospitals at much lower rates in Medicaid relative to Medicare, putting these patients on Medicaid will save the government money. It will also reduce administrative redundancy.
- Reduce funding for Medicaid administrative costs ($2 billion). The Commission advocates passing these costs onto the states.
- Allow expedited application for Medicaid waivers in well-qualified states (no savings specified). The Commission advocates allowing ten states to opt out of the traditional Medicaid system, if they meet a set of “certain objective threshold criteria,” in order to come up with innovative new approaches.
- Malpractice reform ($17 billion). The Commission advocates incremental reforms to the malpractice litigation system, such as creating specialized health courts, allowing safe haven rules for providers who follow best practices, imposing a statute of limitations, etc. The Commission advocates that Congress “evaluate the impact” of “statutory caps on punitive and non-economic damages”: a victory for Democrats.
- A pilot voucher program through the Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB) system ($18 billion). The Commission advocates using the popular FEHB program as a vehicle for road-testing a voucher system that could be adapted to Medicare at some unknown point in the future.
Allow IPAB to cut payments to hospitals. For all the talk about “death panels,” the Medicare Independent Payment Advisory Board, which is tasked with reducing Medicare spending, is essentially only allowed to cut payments to doctors if health costs grow too quickly. The Commission advocates allowing IPAB to cut payments to hospitals as well.
Establish a long-term global budget for total health care spending. The Commission recommends “requiring both the President and Congress” to make further recommendations about reducing health spending.